class: center, middle, inverse, title-slide # Cascading paleoclimate interactions affect origination rates of marine genera ### Gregor Hans Mathes/ Wolfgang Kiessling/ Manuel Jonas Steinbauer ### 5th IMERP ### 20th April 2021 --- class: center ## About me .pull-left[ <!-- ![Gregor Mathes](data:image/png;base64,#https://gregor-mathes.netlify.app/img/user-2.jpg) --> <img src="data:image/png;base64,#https://gregor-mathes.netlify.app/img/user-2.jpg" alt="drawing" width="200"/> ] -- PhD Student Tersane -- ---- Conservation Palaeobiology Environmental Data Science -- ---- Complex interactions of life and climate Palaeoclimate Interactions <style type="text/css"> .bg_karl { position: relative; z-index: 1; } .bg_karl::before { content: ""; background-image: url('https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2017/02/01/10/23/coral-2029448_960_720.png'); background-size: cover; position: absolute; top: 0px; right: 0px; bottom: 0px; left: 0px; opacity: 0.1; z-index: -1; } </style> --- ## Paleoclimate Interaction .center[ ![](data:image/png;base64,#2021_05_20_IMERP_files/figure-html/paleoclimate interaction plot 1-1.png)<!-- --> ] --- class: animated fadeIn ## Paleoclimate Interaction .center[ ![](data:image/png;base64,#2021_05_20_IMERP_files/figure-html/paleoclimate interaction plot 2-1.png)<!-- --> ] --- --- ## Background <br> Various ecological concepts state that **climatic context** matters for evolutionary dynamics -- <br> <br> - niche conservatism<sup>1</sup> -- - migration lags<sup>2</sup> -- - cascading effects<sup>3</sup> .footnote[ [1] [Wiens & Graham 2005](http://wienslab.com/Publications_files/Wiens_Graha_m_AnnRev2005.pdf), [Hopkins et al. 2014](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/ele.12232) [2] [Svenning & Skov 2004](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2004.00614.x?casa_token=FUNth791jy8AAAAA:3VxiavZdDNQNpkHW6ubiq7BbbMhxZnPvsbMaNksoP3VIDjxfAm132-6hoOb0jVG2XUCPFls8U_UNCQpc), [Normand et al. 2011](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rspb.2010.2769) [3] [Beaugrand 2015](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rstb.2013.0264), [Lord et al. 2017](https://www.int-res.com/articles/feature/m571p001.pdf) ] --- class: center, middle, animated slideInLeft ![Palaeoclimate Interactions](data:image/png;base64,#https://i.imgflip.com/59896h.jpg) --- ## Recent work - Biodiversity → High Impact<sup>1</sup> - Extinction → High Impact<sup>2</sup> .footnote[ [1] [Antão et al. 2020](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-020-1185-7) [2] [Mathes et al. 2021](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-020-01377-w) ] -- - # **Origination → ???** --- ## Methodology - Subsampled fossil data - Shareholder quorum subsampling - PBDB - Genus level - Sepkoski's compendium -- - Oxygen isotopes for temperature - Veizer and Prokoph 2015 - Song et al. 2019 -- - Generalized linear mixed effect models - dynamic modeling framework - Bayesian estimation --- class: animated slideInLeft .right-column[ <img src="data:image/png;base64,#img/combined_parameter.png" alt="all parameter" width="430"/> ] .footnote[ Mathes et al. 2021, in review ] --- ### Origination response ![](data:image/png;base64,#2021_05_20_IMERP_files/figure-html/origination responce-1.png)<!-- --> --- class: animated fadeIn ### Origination response ![](data:image/png;base64,#2021_05_20_IMERP_files/figure-html/origination responce full-1.png)<!-- --> --- class: animated slideInLeft ### Effect size .center[ <!-- ![main figure 2](data:image/png;base64,#img/combined_effect_sizes.png) --> <img src="data:image/png;base64,#img/combined_effect_sizes.png" alt="main figure 2" width="550"/> ] --- ### Effect per group ![](data:image/png;base64,#2021_05_20_IMERP_files/figure-html/log odds empty-1.png)<!-- --> --- class: animated fadeIn ### Effect per group ![](data:image/png;base64,#2021_05_20_IMERP_files/figure-html/log odds full-1.png)<!-- --> --- class: center, middle, animated slideInLeft ### How? .center[ ![allopatric speciation](data:image/png;base64,#https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/7a/Allopatric_Speciation_Schematic.svg/1920px-Allopatric_Speciation_Schematic.svg.png) ] .footnote[ Wikimedia Commons/ Andrew Z. Colvin ] --- class: center, middle, animated slideInLeft ### Continental fragmentation .center[ <!-- ![main figure 2](data:image/png;base64,#img/combined_effect_sizes.png) --> <img src="data:image/png;base64,#img/cont_fragm.png" alt="main figure 3" width="650"/> ] --- class: bg_karl ### Summary <br/> .footnote[ Twitter: [@GregorMathes](https://twitter.com/GregorMathes) Website: [gregor-mathes.netlify.app](https://gregor-mathes.netlify.app/) ] -- - **high impact of palaeoclimate interactions on origination** -- - **higher origination signal after cooling-cooling** -- - **allopatric speciation?** -- - **test with continental fragmentation** -- - **allopatric speciation!**