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Cascading palaeoclimate interactions affect origination rate of marine genera.

Abstract

Biodiversity dynamics are shaped by a complex interplay between current conditions and historic legacy. While a simple relationship is often used to link evolution with temperature, short-term climate change likely interacts with previous temperature trends when influencing the pace of origination. Such palaeoclimate interactions have been demonstrated for extinction risk but the effect on evolutionary dynamics is untested. Using a dynamic modelling framework, we analyzed the differential origination response of major phanerozoic marine fossil groups after palaeoclimate interactions. We found a substantial effect of these interactions on origination rates, where the effect remains consistent through time and all studied groups. Building on a potential model for the causal relationship between palaeoclimate interactions and origination rates, we identified conditional independencies and tested them using a continental fragmentation index. This proxy for available habitat space in the continental shelve indicated that palaeoclimate interactions act through sea level changes, leading to allopatric speciation and hence an increased origination rate. Our results demonstrate that biodiversity is controlled by a complex array of ecological and evolutionary factors, with mutual interactions. Explicitly integrating these effects within a dynamic modeling framework leads to an improved discernment of origination patterns in the fossil record.

Date
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Gregor Mathes
PostDoc

My research interests include conservation palaeontology, analytical macroecology, and data science